Home and away review

St Kilda’s story over the last two years has been a case of ‘so close, yet so far’.  Appearing in the Grand Final the previous two seasons, Saints fans single out two fortuitous, as far as their opponents were concerned, passages of play which have led to their demise in both grandfinals.

If the last two seasons were about ‘what could’ve been’, 2011 is about ‘what hasn’t been’. The Saints’ season got off to a terrible start, firstly with a round one loss to Geelong in a particularly scrappy game of football, and then the season ending injury to spiritual leader, Lenny Hayes, in the following week.

The Saints were seemingly down and out after round eight, having won only one game, which came against the lowly Brisbane in round five.

Their next four games resulted in two wins and two losses. The losses coming in games against previous Grand Final combatants, Collingwood and Geelong.

However, the loss to Geelong marked aturning point for St Kilda’s season. The Saints were victorious in the next six games, including a win over the top four bound West Coast in round 17.

Having won six straight, they were then faced with the unenviable task of taking on the mighty Magpies again, many people believing St Kilda were a real chance to win. The end result was a loss, a respectable one at that, but it proved that the Saints still have the ability to mix it with the best.

Key finals player

The Saints’ barometer and most important finals player, is their captain, Nick Riewoldt.

‘Roo’ hasn’t had a great year by his own standards, having kicked only 35 goals this season. The skipper’s goal kicking has been a talking point all year long, with 27 behinds and a good deal more failing to score.

Riewoldt has only kicked four or more goals twice all season, and not surprisingly the Saints were victorious in both games. While a degenerative knee condition has hampered him throughout the season, Riewoldt has proven that his best is not too far off. His nineteen disposals, ten marks and five goals against North Melbourne in round 23 were reminiscent of his form in seasons past.

If he can recapture that form on a consistent basis in the finals, St. Kilda will be a difficult team to face.

Why St Kilda can win the flag

They’ve been there before. The Saints won’t be over-awed by the experience of being in front of 100,000 people on the first Saturday in October.

They have form going into finals. Having won nine of their last twelve games, Ross Lyon’s men are playing a good brand of football at the right time of the season.

They can kick a score. In recent years the Saints had been all about ‘team defence’, and locking down their opposition. Now with improvement from Adam Schneider and Ryan Gamble up forward, and Brett Peake in the middle, they have more avenues to goal.

Why they can’t win the flag

No Lenny Hayes. Their mercurial midfielder steps up without fail in the big games, and the Saints rely on his clearance work in the middle. Instead, they will be relying on David Armitage and Jack Steven to step up in the midfield, both of which are not of the calibre of Lenny Hayes.

The Saints defence hasn’t been as effective as it has in the past. While still being one of the best in the league, the Saints’ system of heavy defensive zoning is less effective than in previous years. This year they are allowing 76.3 points per game (ranked fourth in AFL), compared to 72.3 in 2010 (first) and 64 in 2009 (first).

Injuries have also taken their toll. Along with Lenny Hayes, James Gwilt will not play again in season 2011 and skipper Riewoldt has had niggling injuries all year. If the Saints have a few injuries during the finals, their questionable depth will be tested.

Best possible result

Based on their form in the latter half of the season, the Saints should beat Sydney at Etihad on Saturday night. However they will have to play the loser of Geelong and Hawthorn, two teams that finished second and third for a reason.

This game might prove St. Kilda’s downfall, they will most likely face Hawthorn and be defeated in a season that would be ultimately disappointing, but certainly not a failure.

St. Kilda will face Sydney this Saturday from 7.20pm at Etihad Stadium.

Check out the rest of upstart’s AFL team previews here.

Joel Peterson is a first-year student in the Bachelor of Journalism (Sport) at La Trobe University. Follow him on Twitter @joelbpeterson.