North Melbourne caught fire in the second half of the 2012 season. With only two losses coming over the three-month span, the Kangaroos experienced their first finals berth in four years. Despite being exposed by West Coast in the first week of the finals, many seem to think that this is the beginning of a new era for the club.

Shinboner-sympathisers will point to the performances of players like Drew Petrie and Andrew Swallow to explain why they are set to continue their rise up the ladder. But, with all due respect to North, 2012 seems more like the ceiling than a building block.

As strong as Petrie was in the past season, expecting a 30-year-old to suddenly become a line-leading spearhead is a little bit of a stretch. If Petrie is unable to recapture his form of a year ago, the task becomes a lot more difficult for support acts, such as Lachlan Hansen and Robbie Tarrant.

Few teams are harder to read than North. On their day, they can beat anyone, but when they’re off, they’re very poor.

Key Player: Todd Goldstein

With Hamish McIntosh having moved to Geelong, Goldstein is going to be forced to carry North Melbourne’s ruck duties. Goldstein stepped up over the past two years, but it was forced by McIntosh’s injury woes. That isn’t the case anymore. It’s his job now, unless Daniel Currie continues to emerge from the bottom of the list. And, with this the start of his sixth year, he needs to step up, or it’ll be him that is maybe overtaken by Currie, or even the excitement machine Majak Daw.

If Goldstein can stay healthy and produce at a high level, North could have a good year. If not, they’ll struggle. Hopefully for Kangaroo fans, Goldstein will recapture the sort of form in previous seasons that saw him pick up All-Australian nominations.

Key Match: Round one vs. Collingwood

In many ways, the Kangaroos have billed themselves as the anti-Collingwood in recent years. North Melbourne are the battlers, where the Magpies are the AFL’s equivalent of Carlos Slim. As a result, few games mean more to Kangaroo supporters than those against the Magpies. They were able to knock off Collingwood last year by five goals, and if they can again to kick off 2013, it could jump-start their season. But, if it goes the other way, the Kangaroos could find themselves in a hole from the get-go.

2013 Prediction: 10th – 12th 

The start of the season won’t be easy for the Kangaroos, given they have to go up against the Magpies, Cats, Swans, Lions and Hawks to start the year. If they can snatch one win from those opening five, it’ll be a good result.

The schedule gets a little softer in the middle, but is bookended by another tough slate to finish.

Expect North to pick up some big scalps, which will be countered by dropping points where they shouldn’t. Such inconsistency will continue to frustrate a fan base, spoilt by success in the nineties, which has led to unobtainable expectations in the 2010s’.

As currently constructed, they’re middle of the road.

Oscar Denman is a freelance writer. You can follow him on Twitter: @OscarDenman