Melbourne V Hawthorn: MCG Friday 7.50pm
Melbourne takes to the Friday night stage for the first and only time this season when it faces the Hawks tonight.
The shining light for the Demons in last week’s 43-point loss to the Cats was the impressive performance of key forward Mitch Clark.
The big money recruit managed 21 disposals (14 contested), 8 marks (6 contested) and kicked four goals despite playing a lone hand up forward.
Winning the contested ball is not an issue for Melbourne and in fact marginally won the stat against the Cats.
However, its uncontested possessions continue to be its downfall, as it was smashed again (-122) in this area of the ground.
The Demons’ midfield is loaded with in-and-under players with the likes of Brent Moloney, Nathan Jones, Jack Trengove and James Magner all capable of winning their own football.
However if these players fail to win the ball the Demons are being burned on the outside.
Melbourne ranks last in the competition for uncontested possessions; averaging 158 per game.
The Demons need to find a team balance between their in-and-under ball winners and outside users.
Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson last week complied to the advice of many football pundits and moved Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin closer to goal.
The result was immediate as Franklin booted five goals from 11 scoring shots while Rioli put in his best four-quarter effort of the year on the way to a six-goal haul.
However, the Hawks will be without play-maker Luke Hodge (knee) and full-back Josh Gibson (ankle) as the duo failed to train yesterday and have been left out of the selected 22.
In a further positive for the once premiership favourites, Jarryd Roughead continues to regain his full fitness and his 23 disposals and two goals last week would have warmed brown and gold hearts.
Historically, the points have gone to the Hawks, who have defeated the Demons on the past seven occasions – by an average margin of 46 points.
Prediction: Go with history in this one. Hawks by 47-points.
Adelaide V Geelong: AAMI Stadium Saturday 1.45pm
Adelaide answered its critics last week with a defiant win away from home against a red-hot Sydney.
The Crows were impressive, in particular key-forward Taylor Walker who booted five goals to move to the top of the Coleman medal tally with 20 for the year.
Adelaide’s improvement to be 5-1 after six rounds (they won just seven games in total last year) has been led by the stellar form of midfielder Patrick Dangerfield.
The midfield speedster has averaged 27 disposals and seven clearances a game.
Interest in Dangerfield is surely to grow among Victorian clubs with the 21-year-old, who was originally recruited from Anglesea, stating his intention to hold off contract talks until the end of the year.
This week he will face the side reported to be highly interested in acquiring his talents beyond 2012.
Despite being without two of its midfield superstars in Joel Selwood (concussion) and Jimmy Bartell (ankle), Geelong was last able to easily account for the Demons.
The Cats have been led this year by their own in-form star.
Tom Hawkins has proved last year’s grand final effort was not a one game wonder.
Hawkins’s numbers tell the story. He has averaged 14 touches, seven marks and three goals in 2012, his best output since making his debut six years ago.
Last year the 23-year-old averaged 4.8 marks and just 1.8 goals a game.
The statistics show Adelaide will have a big edge in contested ball (ranked 1st in the competition) while the Cats remain winless in the contested possession count this season (ranked 12th).
However contested specialist and captain Joel Selwood looks set to return for the Cats while Jimmy Bartell remains in doubt after failing to train on Tuesday.
Prediction: Last week’s result has shown the dangers in tipping against winning form. Crows by 7-points.
Greater Western Sydney V Gold Coast: Manuka Oval Saturday 2.10pm
Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast have suffered an average losing margin of 71 and 47 points respectively in 2012.
However, the infants of the competition will both head into tomorrow afternoon’s clash believing four points is well and truly up for grabs.
This contest looms as a true showcase of young talent- the Giants have named a line-up boasting an average age of just 21 while across the board the Suns are aged 22 and six months.
A total of 13 first round draft picks taken from the past two national drafts (seven from Gold Coast and six from GWS) are set to be running around tomorrow.
In a boost for the Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett has been named along with Michael Rischitelli and David Swallow after doubt surrounded the trios availability.
Although the Suns will be without defender Nathan Bock for the remainder of the season after the All Australian suffered a broken leg in last week’s loss to Fremantle.
However, carrying the load in the absence of Gold Coast’s mature-age recruits has been 19-year-old Harley Bennell, who on Wednesday committed to the club for a further two years.
Since Ablett was sidelined with a knee injury Bennell has starred with 21 and 37 disposal performances and has kicked three goals in each of the Suns’ past three games.
Given the plethora of young talent on hand this game looms as an enthralling contest.
Perhaps these two teams will find themselves doing battle on a much bigger stage before the decade is through.
Prediction: Given Ablett, Rischitelli and Swallow’s selection the Gold Coast should win. Suns by 23 points.
Richmond V Sydney: MCG Saturday 4.40pm
Richmond showed last week it could bare the burden of expectation when it accounted for Port Adelaide last week.
The Tigers will have plenty of reasons to believe back-to-back wins are well within reach when they face the Swans.
Richmond has won its past two games against the Swans on the MCG, while the record for John Longmire’s side at the venue is a concerning one.
Sydney has failed to win its past eight games at the MCG, with its last victory dating back to round 19, 2009 against the Tigers.
The Swans came crashing back down to earth last week against the Crows, as they surrendered a five goal to one opening term before going down by just five-points.
They will also be without co-captain Adam Goodes for the next six weeks after suffering a tear in his quad.
Prior to the injury Goodes managed to play an astonishing club-record 305 of a possible 312 games since arriving at the club in 1997.
The club champion will join ruck-man Shane Mumford (back) on the sidelines, with the pair not expected to return until after Sydney’s round 12 bye.
This contest pits two sides against together with contrasting styles of play.
The Tigers lead the competition in uncontested possessions while being ranked second last in contested ball.
Sydney on the other hard ranks second for contested disposals but just 17th in the uncontested tally.
It will be compelling to see which style wins out.
Out of form big man Tyrone Vickery has failed to recover from calf tightness after being subbed out against the Power and will miss the Sydney clash.
Prediction: Richmond on the G’ with the Tiger army will be full of roar. Tigers by 12-points.
Essendon V West Coast: Etihad Stadium Saturday 7.40pm
The match of the round pits a top-four contender against a club that has rapidly become an AFL powerhouse.
The Bombers have rarely put a foot wrong all season with their only defeat coming at the hands of the Magpies by a single point.
Essendon showed the credentials of a quality side in its dominant performance against the Lions.
James Hird’s men won every statistic on the ground, including the inside 50s (+24) and clearances (+16).
They face a West Coast side that has again been forced to dodge criticism surrounding its ability to draw high-tackle free kicks.
The Eagles were able to continue their unbeaten start to the season against the Kangaroos last week, despite losing ruckman Nick Naitanui before the game.
West Coast have been dealt another injury blow with Naitanui (hamstring) and Adam Selwood (hand) failing to board the plane to Melbourne.
Adding to the personnel woes for coach John Worsfold is the two-week suspension of midfielder Ashton Hams for a high bump on North Melbourne captain Andrew Swallow.
Despite the match being played in Victoria, the Eagles have improved their recent travel record, winning six of their past eight interstate trips.
Following this match the Bombers face Richmond, GWS and Melbourne.
Should they beat the Eagles a 9-1 record is a real possibility and could lay a strong foundation for a top-four finish.
Prediction: Essendon are in strong form while the Eagles are well below full-strength. Bombers by 10-points.
Brisbane V Collingwood: The Gabba Saturday 7.40pm
Being at opposite ends of the AFL ladder in recent years has not stopped the Magpies and Lions providing terrific contests.
On the last five occasions these two teams have met the margin has been decided by an average of less than three goals.
However, Brisbane coach Michael Voss will be looking for a vastly improved effort from his side from last week’s ten-goal thumping at the hands of Essendon.
The Lions were fatigued from the previous week’s slog against the Cats and only managed to lead one stat for the match, the clangers (+14).
Collingwood put in a scrappy performance against the Bulldogs before kicking away in the final term.
Statistics show the Magpies have dropped off in areas of the game the have dominated in previous years.
In the past two seasons Collingwood has led the competition in contested possessions and inside 50s.
However, this year it sits 7th and 10th respectively, averaging ten fewer entries inside 50 than 2011.
The Magpies welcome back Alan Didak for his first game of the year however Dale Thomas was again left out as the club continues to nurse the star midfielder back from a hamstring strain.
Prediction: Will be closer than the win-loss ledger suggests. Magpies by 14 points.
North Melbourne V Western Bulldogs: Etihad Stadium Sunday 1.10pm
Last week, North Melbourne was forced out of its usual game style against the Eagles.
The Kangaroos lead the competition in handballs (195 a game) and inside 50s (61) this year.
However, against the Eagles they only used the ball by hand on 152 occasions and generated just 43 forward entries.
The Bulldogs were competitive for three quarters against Collingwood before falling away in the final term.
The form of full-back Brian Lake would have heartened those at the Whitten Oval.
The two-time All Australian showed signs he has recovered from an injury ravaged 2011, finishing with 20 possessions, nine marks and a disposal efficiency of 85%.
In a further blow to the Dogs already under-sized forward line Liam Jones has been ruled out with a back injury. Jarrad Grant and and Ayce Cordy have been included in an extended bench as possible replacements.
The key for the Bulldogs on Sunday will be to limit North Melbourne’s ability to move the ball by hand.
By foot the Kangaroos can be prone to turnovers, given they are ranked second in the competition for clangers (averaging 41 a game).
Prediction: North have the size up forward to out muscle an undersized Bulldogs’ back six. Kangaroos by 20-points.
Fremantle V Port Adelaide: Patersons Stadium Sunday 4.40pm
The Dockers left it till late to hand Gold Coast its narrowest defeat in history.
Ross Lyon’s impact on the club’s game-stle has begun to shine through in recent weeks.
As well as putting numbers behind the ball, Lyon demands caution when in possession and an encouragement to chip the ball around with patience.
As a result Fremantle is ranked 5th for uncontested possessions while in the previous four seasons under Mark Harvey the Dockers were not in the top ten.
They are also ranked 6th for disposal efficiency (73%). In the previous two years the Dockers have been a lowly 11th in 2011 and 14th in 2010.
Port Adelaide has experienced severe backlash following its disappointing performance against the Tigers.
No one at the club has felt the pressure more than coach Matthew Primus who was told to “keep walking” by Adelaide journalist Michelangelo Rucci with fans even creating a Facebook petition to sack the club’s former premiership ruckman.
A trip to Perth is not the easiest place to muster a turnaround in form but the Power must at least show some fight for their incumbent coach and their ridiculed club.
Prediction: Power’s pain will continue for at least another week. Dockers by 35-points.
St Kilda V Carlton: Etihad Stadium Monday 7.40pm
For the third consecutive season these two teams will step into the Monday night arena.
Carlton looked sluggish against the Giants last week before a nine goal to one second half ensured a comfortable win.
As expected the Blues will welcome back skipper Chris Judd and Jarrad Waite while Chris Yarran is out for the third straight week with a toe injury.
St Kilda looked to have turned back the clock to 2010 against the Hawks, in particular Justin Koschitzke who took five contested possessions and kicked five-goals.
It was Koschitzke’s biggest haul in front of goal since round 21, 2010 against Richmond.
The key for Brett Ratten is to lock down two-time All Australian Lenny Hayes. Shut down Hayes, and Carlton can shut out the Saints.
The 32-year-old leads the Saints in clearances as well as tackles and is also ranked second in contested possessions and disposals.
This match shapes as an entertaining night of football and should give husbands some respite from The Voice.
Prediction: The Saints will push Carlton right to the wire. Blues by 7 points.
William Botoulas is a third-year Bachelor of Journalism student and upstart’s football writer. You can follow him on Twitter @botoulas43.
