For the last few years, the quartet of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have been described as the ‘big four’, and deservedly so. Amazingly 26 of the last 27 Majors have been shared between just three players – Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.
Defending champion Novak Djokovic had one of the most dominant seasons ever in 2011, achieving a win-loss ratio of 72-6 (92%) and most of those losses were towards the end of the year where fatigue set in. Djokovic won three of the four majors including Wimbledon, where he dethroned Nadal of the number one ranking in the final. What’s more, he won seven other tournaments.
My only concern is if he has recovered enough physically after such a demanding season. By not contesting any official warm-up tournaments, these concerns can’t be ignored. However, he is skilled enough to find form within the tournament itself; and is therefore my tip to win.
Like Djokovic, Nadal had a respectable season. He managed to make three of the four Major finals, including a win over Federer in Paris to claim his sixth French Open in seven years.
Injury played a big part in his departing at the quarter-final stage of last year’s Australian Open, and it was the one occasion he failed to make the final.
Six times during the year Djokovic has beaten Nadal in a final. He hasn’t won a tournament on hard court since October 2010, and surprisingly, late last year he admitted losing the passion and drive he usually prides himself on. Add to that a worrying shoulder injury and I’d place him fourth in the pecking order from the ‘big four’.
Federer hasn’t won any of the four Grand Slams in the past two years. Can he add to his tally of sixteen wins? Aged thirty, it’s more likely that his time is running out.
That said, he finished last season stronger than his competition, winning three tournaments in succession, including the Year-End Championships. His unbelievable run of consecutive quarter-final appearances is now up to thirty, which is a testament to how consistent and reliable he is.
A curious anomaly from the draw sees him on the same half as Nadal for the first time in seven years, meaning a potential blockbuster semi-final clash.
Andy Murray comes in with good form, recently winning the Brisbane International. He seems to have a fresh vibe under new coach Ivan Lendl. Last year was his most consistent in Majors, reaching the semis or better on all four occasions. He’s been runner-up the last two years at the Australian Open so maybe this time he can finally win his first Major.
Besides the ‘big four’, the draw looks wide open for Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who is always capable of surprises. Juan Martin del Potro has done something Murray hasn’t, and that’s win a Major, so he is always in the conversation. Former Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych and the ‘energizer bunny’ David Ferrer are the other names to look out for.
Bernard Tomic comes in with fantastic form, with a respectable loss to Murray at the semis in Brisbane before then winning the exhibition event in Kooyong. He’s now played all of the ‘big four’ and is gaining a lot of experience along the way. He garnered a lot of attention with a crushing win over Robin Soderling, at Wimbledon last year before losing to Djokovic in the quarter finals. Ranked 37 and only 19 years old, he is predicted to enter the world’s top 20 at some stage during the year.
He faces a tough first-up match against former semi-finalist Fernando Verdasco, but I am that impressed, I expect him to win. He is in Federer’s eighth of the draw, so in the best case scenario that will be as far as he will get.
As for Lleyton Hewitt, his career is waning. He is likely to bump into another old foe, Andy Roddick, in the second round, a match I don’t expect him to win.
Predicted outcome: Djokovic beats Federer in the finals.
Farhan Shah is a second year Bachelor of Journalism (Sport) student at La Trobe University. You can follow him on Twitter: @farhanshah195.
