The AFL’s f-word – finals – is two months away. And after 16 rounds of action, we’re well aware of who the contenders and the pretenders are in 2011.

The top five positions on the ladder seem set. Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton and West Coast – easily the biggest surprise packet in 2011 – currently occupy the top five spots. Unless one suffers a dramatic fall from grace, that shouldn’t change.

But below that, it’s tight. Real tight.

After Richmond kissed its finals hopes goodbye on Saturday night, there are now seven teams who can genuinely claim they have a shot at playing in September this season.

So which teams will scrape in? Which ones will miss out?

Here are the seven contenders vying for the sixth, seventh and eight positions on the ladder:

Sydney (Currently 6th on the ladder, 8 wins-6 losses-1 draw)

Run home: Fremantle (SCG), Western Bulldogs (SCG), BYE, Essendon (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), St Kilda (ANZ Stadium), Geelong (Skilled) and Brisbane Lions (SCG).

Analysis: The Swans have already done enough to make the finals, but now it’s a question of where they finish in the top half of the eight.  If the Swans finish in fifth or sixth, they will host an elimination final. But with only three games where they’re expected to win, they’re in danger of slipping down to seventh or eighth spot, meaning they’ll have to travel. The Swans play four of their remaining seven games in Sydney and have a nicely-timed bye six weeks out from the end of the home-and-away season. They should hold sixth.

Fremantle (7th, 8-6)

Run home: Sydney (SCG), West Coast (Patersons Stadium), Hawthorn (Patersons Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (Patersons Stadium), North Melbourne (Etiihad Stadium), Collingwood (Patersons Stadium) and Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium).

Analysis: With a lengthy injury list, which includes two of their most important players in Aaron Sandilands and David Mundy, and one of the toughest home stretches of any team, the Dockers are in trouble. There isn’t one game you could pencil a Fremantle win in over the next couple of months, even at home. We’ll find out plenty about this club’s mental strength over the next two months. But on paper, they’re likely to fall out.

Essendon (8th, 7-7-1)

Run home: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Carlton (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney (Etihad Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium), West Coast Eagles (Patersons Stadium), Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium) and BYE.

Analysis: Going on the last two weeks, the Bombers are capable of beating anyone, anywhere. Realistically, you would tip them to definitely win three of their remaining games and there’s a couple that could go either way. However the Bombers’ biggest issue is the bye in the final round, a problem that has been earmarked since the fixture was released in 2010. If they want to play finals, they need to cement their spot before Round 24. Otherwise they’ll be stuck in the awkward situation of relying on other teams.

Western Bulldogs (9th, 7-8)

Run home: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Sydney (SCG), West Coast (Etihad Stadium), BYE, Essendon (Etihad Stadium), Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Hawthorn (MCG) and Fremantle (Etihad Stadium).

Analysis: Footy pundits said coach Rodney Eade could walk out of his job a month ago, now they say he should be resigned for next season. The Bulldogs have come from nowhere and are now a genuine chance of finishing in the top eight after four consecutive victories. It doesn’t get any easier for them though. They play two sides currently below them on the ladder, but if that midfield continues its outstanding form, the Dogs might be able to win up to five games. They’re a good chance.

Melbourne (10th, 6-7-1)

Run home: Port Adelaide (TIO Stadium), Hawthorn (MCG), Geelong (Skilled), Carlton (MCG), West Coast Eagles (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast (MCG) and Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Analysis: The Dees have been harder to read than a 15-year-old girl before her first formal this season. But they have one of the most interesting run homes of any team in the league. They play Port Adelaide twice, Gold Coast and Richmond – all winnable games. But they have a tough month in-between those games, with matches against four of the top five sides. The Dees must be competitive in Rounds 18-21, otherwise the last three weeks could be harder than expected.

St Kilda (11th, 6-7-1)

Run home:  West Coast (Etihad Stadium), Adelaide (Etihad Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), Fremantle (Etihad Stadium), Collingwood (Etihad Stadium), Sydney (ANZ Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium) and Carlton (MCG).

Analysis: Like the Bulldogs, the Saints have bounced back after a disappointing start to the season. They could almost lock in four wins and are more than capable of being competitive against Sydney and Carlton. The problem for the Saints though is the Bulldogs, who are likely to win a similar amount of games and are currently two points ahead of them. Percentage could be crucial, so the Saints must make sure they have big wins over Adelaide and Gold Coast.

North Melbourne (12th, 6-9)

Run home: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium), Brisbane Lions (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (Etihad Stadium), Hawthorn (Aurora Stadium), BYE, Fremantle (Etihad Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium) and Richmond (Etihad Stadium).

Analysis: The Kangaroos probably don’t deserve to play finals after their 117-point loss to Collingwood on Sunday. However they are still a mathematical chance to make the top eight. The good thing for the Roos is they play all but one game of their remaining games at Etihad Stadium, the arena they do their best work at. They should beat Brisbane, but must upset one or two of Western Bulldogs, Carlton or Hawthorn. Then who knows?

Ben’s top eight after Round 24:

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. West Coast
5. Carlton
6. Sydney
7. Western Bulldogs
8. St Kilda

Ben Waterworth is a third-year Bachelor of Journalism student at La Trobe University and is upstart’s former sports editor. You can follow him on twitter: @bjwaterworth